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Op-Ed FEBRUARY 27, 2026 | The Indian Eye 12

INDIAN INTEREST

WE ARE IN THE TWILIGHT OF

THE RULES-BASED ORDER

As Washington reassures, Beijing courts, and Delhi recalibrates, the world stumbles into a messy multipolar transition.

ton, continues to anchor itself in the
Atlantic alliance even as it explores
“strategic autonomy.”
This is the paradox of our time:
a system widely acknowledged as ex-
hausted is still powerful enough to re-
sist displacement.
At the same time, the “rules-
based order” — long invoked as a
moral framework — is visibly eroding.
Western allies now openly declare that
the era of US-backed global security
SHOBHAN SAXENA and rules is over. Sanctions regimes
proliferate but are selectively applied.
he old world order is not col- International law is cited fervently in
lapsing in one dramatic mo- some conflicts and muted in others.
Tment. It is fraying in full public The credibility gap has widened.
view. For many in the Global South,
In Mumbai this week, India’s Ex- this is less a sudden crisis than a de-
ternal Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar layed reckoning. The rules, they ar-
offered a characteristically unsenti- gue, were never entirely neutral. In-
mental diagnosis. The global system, stitutions reflected power hierarchies
he said, is entering a “messy” and frozen in 1945. Calls for reform of the
“unpredictable” transitional phase. UN Security Council, the IMF, and
“The established global order is clearly matic partner rather than a systemic curity in decision-making,” he warned, the World Bank have echoed for de-
changing before our very eyes. Re- challenger. Both courting the same while technology — especially in the cades. Now, as Western dominance
placements are hard to create, and we audience. Both aware that Europe is age of artificial intelligence — would wanes, those demands grow sharper.
appear to be headed for a long twilight unsettled. become ever more transformative. But the alternative is not yet clear.
zone. This will be messy, risky, unpre- Rubio’s speech was conciliato- The era when trade liberaliza- A genuinely multipolar order requires
dictable, perhaps even dangerous.” ry but edged with recalibration. The tion was treated as an almost sacred not just multiple poles of power, but
Jaishankar’s choice of words — Trump administration, he suggested, good is over. Geopolitics now trumps shared understandings of restraint
twilight zone — is telling. The post- remains committed to the alliance but globalization. Supply chains are scru- and responsibility. Without that, mul-
1945 order, anchored in American believes Europe “needs to do more” tinized for strategic vulnerabilities. tipolarity risks degenerating into frag-
primacy, Western institutions and the and that the international system it- Semiconductors, rare earths, AI mod- mentation.
rhetoric of a “rules-based” system, is self should be “rebuilt.” It was an ad- els — these are not just commercial as- The contest unfolding between
no longer uncontested. But nor has a mission, couched in reassurance, that sets but instruments of national power. Washington and Beijing over Europe
coherent alternative emerged. What even America sees the existing archi- This is what a multipolar world is only one theatre in a broader race —
we see instead is overlap: fragments tecture as no longer fit for purpose. looks like in its formative stage: con- as observers in Munich noted — “to
of the old coexisting uneasily with ex- Wang Yi’s pitch was smoother. If tested, transactional, and anxious. shape what comes next.” Will the new
periments of the new. China and the EU “firmly grasp” that India’s own positioning reflects order be rebuilt around reformed
Even as Jaishankar spoke in they are partners, he said, they can this reality. Delhi engages the Quad Western institutions? Or will parallel
Mumbai, the stage in Munich told its “prevent the international community but remains in BRICS. It deepens structures — BRICS banks, regional
own story of flux. Minutes after U.S. from moving toward division and pro- ties with Washington even as it buys trade blocs, technology spheres —
Secretary of State Marco Rubio pro- mote the continuous progress of hu- discounted Russian oil. It speaks the gradually hollow them out?
claimed at the Munich Security Con- man civilization.” Beijing’s message is language of the Global South while Jaishankar’s warning of a “long
ference that the United States and clear: in a world of American unpre- negotiating technology partnerships twilight zone” suggests that clarity will
Europe “belong together,” Chinese dictability, China offers steadiness — with advanced economies. Multipo- not come soon. The transition will be
Foreign Minister Wang Yi stood at or at least an alternative. larity, for India, is not a slogan but a uneven. Crises will accelerate some
the same podium with a different ap- Behind these competing over- survival strategy. shifts; inertia will slow others. Allianc-
peal: “China and the EU are partners, tures lies a more profound shift. As Yet the old order is not yielding es will be tested; new alignments will
not rivals.” Jaishankar observed, aspects of the quietly. The United States still com- form. In this in-between era, diploma-
The choreography was striking. current global order will coexist with mands unmatched military reach. The cy becomes a high-wire act. Nations
Washington reassuring Europe that elements of the new one. But the bal- dollar remains dominant. NATO, for must hedge without alienating, diver-
the transatlantic bond remains intact. ance is tilting. “Economics would in- all the strain, endures. Europe, shak- sify without destabilizing, and assert
Beijing positioning itself as a prag- creasingly give way to politics and se- en but not severed from Washing- without overreaching.

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